Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...
There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...
For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...
The 10-year yield is often used as a stand-in for mortgage rates and also shows how investors feel about the economy’s future ...
A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...
As of 10/31/24, the iShares +20-year Treasury Bond ETF’s (TLT) 10-year annual return was -0.07%. As of Friday, 11/15/24, that 10-year annual return is even worse at -0.34%. The best-performing asset ...
The bond market shows unusual "bear steepening," where long-term yields rise faster than short-term, hinting at potential economic shifts despite no recession signs. Treasury yields consist of three ...
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