Federal Reserve reveals that prediction market data from Kalshi could improve how policymakers gauge macroeconomic expectations in real time.

Gold futures are currently trading within a highly structured VC PMI mean-reversion framework as price consolidates just below the weekly mean at 5030. The market has successfully stabilized above the ...

A new study introduces a global probabilistic forecasting model that predicts when and where ionospheric disturbances—measured by the Rate of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI)—are likely to ...

In terms of class probability, entrepreneurs and consumers have to decide which characteristics of a particular event are unique (and not relevant to the probability estimate) and which elements are ...

Bayes' theorem is a statistical formula used to calculate conditional probability. Learn how it works, how to calculate it ...

This study proposes a valuable and interpretable approach for predicting hematoma expansion in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage from non-contrast computed tomography. The evidence ...

After the “Great Resignation” of 2021–2022, when millions of workers quit their jobs each month, more employees are now choosing to stay put for the sake of stability. A Federal Reserve Bank of New ...

ABSTRACT: In order to introduce left and right truncated versions of the modified lognormal with a power-law distribution, we derive its probability density function, its distribution function, its ...